Stockholm International Peace Research Institute;
Artificial intelligence (AI) is not only undergoing a renaissance in its technical development, but is also starting to shape deterrence relations among nucleararmed states. This is already evident in East Asia, where asymmetries of power and capability have long driven nuclear posture and weapon acquisition. Continuing this trend, integration of AI into military platforms has the potential to offer weaker nuclear-armed states the opportunity to reset imbalances in capabilities, while at the same time exacerbating concerns that stronger states may use AI to further solidify their dominance and to engage in more provocative actions. This paradox of perceptions, as it is playing out in East Asia, is fuelled by a series of national biases and assumptions that permeate decision-making. They are also likely to serve as the basis for AI algorithms that drive future conventional and nuclear platforms.