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2020-03-10
Center for Economic and Policy Research;
This study focuses primarily on the 'Final Report' of the OAS audit of the election results and shows how the authors of that report misrepresent the data and evidence found in the audit in an attempt to further bolster their claims of intentional manipulation on the part of Bolivia's former electoral authorities. The OAS Final Report identifies many real problems with the management of the elections that should be addressed. However, despite claims to the contrary, it does not provide any evidence that those irregularities altered the outcome of the election, or were part of an actual attempt to do so.
2019-12-12
Center for Economic and Policy Research;
On November 25, a short paper was released purporting to show that there was fraud in the October 20th Bolivian presidential election — and that absent this fraud, the election would have required a second round. However, the authors, Escobari and Hoover produce no credible evidence that the official results of the election should be doubted. Instead, their approach confirms our finding that the expanded MAS margin on the later tally sheets is explained by the mix of precincts considered before and after the interruption of the unofficial TREP count. Their alarm regarding "dosing" was based on a highly distorted presentation of the facts. Instead, careful examination simply reminds us that geography was even more critical to the order in which tally sheets were counted in the cómputo than to the order in the TREP.
In this brief, we replicate the results of Escobari and Hoover, discover errors in their analysis, and eventually find that the approach essentially confirms our own findings that the change in margin was predictable.
2019-12-12
Center for Economic and Policy Research;
The OAS final audit of the Bolivian elections, published on December 4th, concludes that there was "intentional manipulation" and "serious irregularities" that make it impossible to verify the results of the election. Members of the de facto government and other critics of former president Evo Morales have used the findings of the OAS audit to corroborate allegations of electoral fraud leveled in the hours and days following the vote. But the following analysis shows that the report itself presents a biased and misleading account of the audit's findings, presenting serious inaccuracies and downplaying or ignoring altogether any evidence that runs counter to the fraud narrative that the OAS has promoted since the day after the election.
This analysis is not meant to serve as a validation of the electoral results themselves. Rather, it is an analysis of the OAS's actual findings and of the neutrality and rigor of the audit itself. This is not about supporting one political party or candidate over another. Nor is it solely about Bolivia. This is about the need for independent electoral observation in the hemisphere, and about accountability for an organization that has abandoned any semblance of neutrality under the leadership of Secretary General Luis Almagro.
2019-11-08
Center for Economic and Policy Research;
This paper presents results from statistical analysis of election returns and tally sheets from Bolivia's October 20 elections. This analysis finds no evidence that irregularities or fraud affected the official result that gave President Evo Morales a first-round victory. The paper presents a step-by-step breakdown of what happened with Bolivia's vote counts (both the unofficial quick count, and the slower official count), seeking to dispel confusion over the process. The report includes the results of 500 simulations that show that Morales's first-round victory was not just possible, but probable, based on the results of the initial 83.85 percent of votes in the quick count.
2019-10-01
Center for Economic and Policy Research;
Bolivia's economy has undergone a structural economic transformation during Evo Morales's presidency. This paper looks at the government's macroeconomic policies, institutional and policy changes, as well as overall economic and social indicators in the 13 years since the Morales government took office.
2017-09-08
Oxfam;
This case study takes a retrospective look at the 2010-11 Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (DG-ECHO) Small-Scale Disaster Project in La Paz and the context within which it took place. Our research found that absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities can be fostered by iterative development processes. It also demonstrated that disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation are strongly tied to resilient, sustainable, long-term development. Resilience, however, is not an a priori conceptual framework of development programming; rather it is a life process engendered within specific communities. Consequently, development practitioners must construct programs based on rigorous, ethical, and sound research integrating scientific with local and ancestral knowledge. This is the only approach that can generate environmentally healthy and productive, sustainable, and equitable life systems.
This report is part of a series that seeks to draw lessons from resilience projects in Latin America and the Pacific. Follow the links below to the other papers in the series:
Addressing Water Shortages: A catalyst for more resilient development in Fiji
"Disaster is Nature Telling Us How to Live Resiliently": Indigenous disaster risk reduction, organizing, and spirituality in Tierradentro, Colombia
Learning from Hindsight: Synthesis report on Oxfam resilience research
This research was conducted with the support of the Margaret A. Cargill Philanthropies.
2017-07-24
Oxfam GB;
This evaluation is presented as part of the Effectiveness Review Series 2015/16, selected for review under the resilience thematic area. This report documents the findings of a quasi-experimental evaluation carried out in April 2015 of the ‘Supporting communities in Bolivia to adapt to changing weather patterns and improve their livelihoods’ project. It sought to assess the success the project had in enabling households that directly participated in the camellones to strengthen their livelihoods, to minimise risk from shocks and to adapt to emerging trends and uncertainty.
The project was carried out by Oxfam in partnership with the Kenneth Lee Foundation in several communities of the municipality of Trinidad in the Beni Region of Bolivia between 2010 and 2013. The key activities of this project (together with its predecessor, launched in 2008) were to construct and promote the use of ‘camellones’, an indigenous land-management system intended to protect livelihoods (agriculture and fish farming) against drought or flood.
Read more about Oxfam's Effectiveness Reviews.
2016-10-01
World Resources Institute (WRI);
A new report offers evidence that the modest investments needed to secure land rights for indigenous communities will generate billions in returns—economically, socially and environmentally—for local communities and the world's changing climate. The report, Climate Benefits, Tenure Costs: The Economic Case for Securing Indigenous Land Rights, quantifies for the first time the economic value of securing land rights for the communities who live in and protect forests, with a focus on Colombia, Brazil, and Bolivia.
2016-10-01
World Resources Institute (WRI);
A new report offers evidence that the modest investments needed to secure land rights for indigenous communities will generate billions in returns—economically, socially and environmentally—for local communities and the world's changing climate. The report, Climate Benefits, Tenure Costs: The Economic Case for Securing Indigenous Land Rights, quantifies for the first time the economic value of securing land rights for the communities who live in and protect forests, with a focus on Colombia, Brazil, and Bolivia.
2016-05-31
Global Handwashing Partnership;
In 2014 hundreds of millions of people rallied around the slogan "Choose handwashing, choose health" and celebrated Global Handwashing Day. This report tells the story of Global Handwashing Day in 2014.
2016-05-05
World Bank Group;
In recent years, skills development has become a priority among developed and developing countries alike. The World Bank Group, in its quest to end extreme poverty and promote shared prosperity, has joined efforts with countries and multilateral development partners to ensure that individuals have access to quality education and training opportunities and that employers can find the skills they need to operate. The skills towards employability and productivity (STEP) skills measurement program is part of the World Bank's portfolio of analytical products on skills. The STEP program consists of two survey instruments that collect information on the supply and demand for skills in urban areas: a household survey and an employer survey. STEP has been implemented in waves, the first surveys being implemented in seven countries in 2012 (Bolivia, Colombia, Ghana, Lao Peoples Democratic Republic (PDR), Ukraine, Vietnam, and the Yunnan Province in China), and the second in five countries in 2013 (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kenya, and Macedonia, Former Yugoslav Republic of (FYR)). The data presented in this publication correspond to these countries. It illustrates the similarities and differences among groups that have completed different education levels on a wide range of issues and outcomes. Section one analyzes the trajectory of skills acquisition: participation in early childhood education programs, educational attainment by gender, and participation in training and apprenticeship programs. Section two explores background conditions associated with educational attainment, including the socioeconomic status of survey respondents at age 15, the educational attainment of their parents, their households' asset levels, their health (as expressed by the presence of chronic illness), and their overall satisfaction with life. Section three covers cognitive skills: writing, numeracy, and reading (which is also evaluated through a direct reading assessment). Section four covers job-relevant skills, which are task-specific and which respondents possess or use on the job; and section five covers socio-emotional skills, using established metrics to measure personality and behavior. Section six covers the status of survey respondents in the labor market: whether they are employed, unemployed, or inactive.
2015-07-01
Open Society Foundations;
With significant pressure and earmarked funding from the United States and other demand-side countries, the Andean countries of Bolivia, Colombia, and Peru have struggled for decades with the question of how to limit the growth of coca and the export of cocaine and comply with UN drug conventions. Tactics such as forced eradication, criminalization, and marginalization of coca farmers have not only failed to significantly reduce cocaine production, but have had disastrous consequences for the economies and communities in the region.
In 2004 the Bolivian government, despite international pressure to maintain the status quo, gathered the political momentum to try something different. Bolivia established the cato accord that allowed farmers to legally grow a limited and regulated quantity of coca leaves, a mainstay of Andean life for 4,000 years.
The Bolivian model's simple concept is supported at the local, national, regional, and international levels by a complex network of growers, unions, organizations, government agencies, and police and military forces.
Habeas Coca: Bolivia's Community Coca Control explains how the community control system works and shows its effectiveness in decreasing violence, increasing citizen engagement, limiting corruption, stabilizing and diversifying local economies, and reducing coca cultivation. It also explores the areas where the program and its evaluation can be improved.
Countries where legal and illegal drug markets coexist, or can be developed, can benefit greatly by exploring and adapting the community control model to their unique circumstances. And, by better understanding the possibilities and constraints placed on those on the supply-side, countries on the demand-side of the global drug market will learn from Habeas Coca how critical their own policies, domestic and foreign, are to the success of limiting cocaine sup
