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2020-03-10
Center for Economic and Policy Research;
This study focuses primarily on the 'Final Report' of the OAS audit of the election results and shows how the authors of that report misrepresent the data and evidence found in the audit in an attempt to further bolster their claims of intentional manipulation on the part of Bolivia's former electoral authorities. The OAS Final Report identifies many real problems with the management of the elections that should be addressed. However, despite claims to the contrary, it does not provide any evidence that those irregularities altered the outcome of the election, or were part of an actual attempt to do so.
2019-10-01
Center for Economic and Policy Research;
Bolivia's economy has undergone a structural economic transformation during Evo Morales's presidency. This paper looks at the government's macroeconomic policies, institutional and policy changes, as well as overall economic and social indicators in the 13 years since the Morales government took office.
2019-11-08
Center for Economic and Policy Research;
This paper presents results from statistical analysis of election returns and tally sheets from Bolivia's October 20 elections. This analysis finds no evidence that irregularities or fraud affected the official result that gave President Evo Morales a first-round victory. The paper presents a step-by-step breakdown of what happened with Bolivia's vote counts (both the unofficial quick count, and the slower official count), seeking to dispel confusion over the process. The report includes the results of 500 simulations that show that Morales's first-round victory was not just possible, but probable, based on the results of the initial 83.85 percent of votes in the quick count.
2019-12-12
Center for Economic and Policy Research;
The OAS final audit of the Bolivian elections, published on December 4th, concludes that there was "intentional manipulation" and "serious irregularities" that make it impossible to verify the results of the election. Members of the de facto government and other critics of former president Evo Morales have used the findings of the OAS audit to corroborate allegations of electoral fraud leveled in the hours and days following the vote. But the following analysis shows that the report itself presents a biased and misleading account of the audit's findings, presenting serious inaccuracies and downplaying or ignoring altogether any evidence that runs counter to the fraud narrative that the OAS has promoted since the day after the election.This analysis is not meant to serve as a validation of the electoral results themselves. Rather, it is an analysis of the OAS's actual findings and of the neutrality and rigor of the audit itself. This is not about supporting one political party or candidate over another. Nor is it solely about Bolivia. This is about the need for independent electoral observation in the hemisphere, and about accountability for an organization that has abandoned any semblance of neutrality under the leadership of Secretary General Luis Almagro.
2019-12-12
Center for Economic and Policy Research;
On November 25, a short paper was released purporting to show that there was fraud in the October 20th Bolivian presidential election — and that absent this fraud, the election would have required a second round. However, the authors, Escobari and Hoover produce no credible evidence that the official results of the election should be doubted. Instead, their approach confirms our finding that the expanded MAS margin on the later tally sheets is explained by the mix of precincts considered before and after the interruption of the unofficial TREP count. Their alarm regarding "dosing" was based on a highly distorted presentation of the facts. Instead, careful examination simply reminds us that geography was even more critical to the order in which tally sheets were counted in the cómputo than to the order in the TREP.In this brief, we replicate the results of Escobari and Hoover, discover errors in their analysis, and eventually find that the approach essentially confirms our own findings that the change in margin was predictable.
2017-09-08
Oxfam;
This case study takes a retrospective look at the 2010-11 Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (DG-ECHO) Small-Scale Disaster Project in La Paz and the context within which it took place. Our research found that absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities can be fostered by iterative development processes. It also demonstrated that disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation are strongly tied to resilient, sustainable, long-term development. Resilience, however, is not an a priori conceptual framework of development programming; rather it is a life process engendered within specific communities. Consequently, development practitioners must construct programs based on rigorous, ethical, and sound research integrating scientific with local and ancestral knowledge. This is the only approach that can generate environmentally healthy and productive, sustainable, and equitable life systems.This report is part of a series that seeks to draw lessons from resilience projects in Latin America and the Pacific. Follow the links below to the other papers in the series:Addressing Water Shortages: A catalyst for more resilient development in Fiji"Disaster is Nature Telling Us How to Live Resiliently": Indigenous disaster risk reduction, organizing, and spirituality in Tierradentro, ColombiaLearning from Hindsight: Synthesis report on Oxfam resilience researchThis research was conducted with the support of the Margaret A. Cargill Philanthropies.
2017-07-24
Oxfam GB;
This evaluation is presented as part of the Effectiveness Review Series 2015/16, selected for review under the resilience thematic area. This report documents the findings of a quasi-experimental evaluation carried out in April 2015 of the ‘Supporting communities in Bolivia to adapt to changing weather patterns and improve their livelihoods’ project. It sought to assess the success the project had in enabling households that directly participated in the camellones to strengthen their livelihoods, to minimise risk from shocks and to adapt to emerging trends and uncertainty.The project was carried out by Oxfam in partnership with the Kenneth Lee Foundation in several communities of the municipality of Trinidad in the Beni Region of Bolivia between 2010 and 2013. The key activities of this project (together with its predecessor, launched in 2008) were to construct and promote the use of ‘camellones’, an indigenous land-management system intended to protect livelihoods (agriculture and fish farming) against drought or flood.Read more about Oxfam's Effectiveness Reviews.
2009-01-01
Rockefeller Archive Center;
The Bolivian National Revolution of 1952 that brought the Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (National Revolutionary Movement, MNR) to power attempted profound social, economic, and political transformations of Bolivian society. Most accounts of the revolution's impact stress nationalization of the mining industry, agrarian reform, and the implementation of universal suffrage as part of the MNR's project to modernize Bolivia economically and politically. My project builds on the insights of these analyses and examines the cultural impacts of the MNR's modernization campaign on the nation's sizable indigenous population. It provides a unique interpretation of the Bolivian Revolution by using government-sponsored rural public health campaigns as a lens for analyzing the racial, class, and gendered interactions of the indigenous population with the revolutionary state.
2015-04-23
Agua Sustentable;
Climate change is affecting glaciers worldwide, and the vulnerability and sensitivity of glaciers in the Bolivian Andes is a warning indicator for mountain regions in other areas. Reduced water security is projected for the Bolivian Andes due to an expected increase in demand and a decline in the supply of water. In turn, this will have an impact on food security, power generation and livelihoods. Rock glaciers are protected under rock formations and can sometimes play an important role in long-term water storage. They should be factored into water management and climate change adaptation strategies. This report describes research to create the first rock glacier inventory for Bolivia, and highlights the need to prioritize the preservation of areas where rock glaciers are located in the interests of water security for vulnerable populations. The inventory could also be used to protect rock glaciers from the effects of mining activity, and the report suggests that legislation should be encouraged in Bolivia to guarantee the protection of glaciers, along with the conservation and restoration of wetlands and other ecosystems crucial to water storage and supply and ultimately, to the achievement of the human right to water.
2010-09-28
Oxfam International;
Bolivia is a country particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In July 2009, a team of Oxfam researchers travelled to three areas of Bolivia (Trinidad in Beni, the Cochabamba valleys and Khapi under Mount Illimani, in La Paz) to take a snapshot of how poor families are experiencing the changing climate, and how they are adapting to it. Poor women and men throughout Bolivia are already experiencing the consequences of climate change, but in most cases are ill-equipped to adapt to the present and future impacts. The perception of many villagers and local farmers is that the climate is already changing in terms of the unpredictability of the rainfall, more extreme weather events and higher temperatures, with negative impacts for their livelihoods. Women are often the hardest hit.|Executive Summary, Introduction, 1. Poverty, vulnerability and climate change, 2. Climate change impacts: past, present and future 3. The highlands, water is life, 4. The valleys, predicting the weather 5. The lowlands, rescuing the past, 6. The Platform of Social Organisations against Climate Change, 7. Government perspectives on climate change and adaptation, 8. Conclusions and Recommendations
2014-12-02
Oxfam GB;
This evaluation is presented as part of the Effectiveness Review Series 2013/14, randomly selected for review under the citizen voice thematic area. This report documents the findings of a qualitative impact evaluation, carried out in April 2014. The evaluation used 'process tracing' to assess the effectiveness of the Promoting Women's Citizenship for Change from Urban Intercultural Spaces in Bolivia (Ciudadanía de las Mujeres para el Cambio desde Espacios Interculturales Urbanos en Bolivia) project.The project, part of Oxfam GB's Raising Her Voice (RHV) portfolio, was implemented between August 2008 and March 2013 by the Instituto de Formación Femenina Integral (IFFI), a women's organisation based in Cochabamba, Bolivia. The main goal of this project was to promote gender equality in the metropolitan region of Cochabamba through a number of actions aimed at strengthening the leadership and capacity of the women and institutions who participated in the Plataforma de Mujeres por la Ciudadanía y la Equidad (the Women's Platform) and coordinating their work with other related networks at regional and national level. Ultimately, it was expected that this would lead to greater participation and influence of women from Cochabamba in several political decision-making processes.Read more about the Oxfam Effectiveness Reviews.
2012-10-22
Oxfam GB;
Oxfam's partner, Fundación Jubileo (FJ), is working to improve public policy and public administration in Bolivia and promote the more effective and transparent administration of funds. FJ draws on its own relationships and access to information in order to provide quality research and analysis and influence key policy debates. It is also working to create spaces for more inclusive social dialogue and build the capacity of other civil society actors to influence these debates. This report documents the findings of a qualitative impact evaluation, carried out in March 2012, which used process tracing to assess the effectiveness of FJ's advocacy work between 2008-2011.
